MANILA, Philippines – United States Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is in the Philippines this week, his second stop in a weeklong blitz around the Indo-Pacific. It will likely be among Austin’s last visits to the region before his planned successor, Donald Trump’s defense chief pick Fox and Friends Weekend anchor Pete Hegseth, takes over. 

In Manila on Monday, November 18, Austin and his Filipino counterpart Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro signed the long-awaited General Security of Military Information Agreement, which would make real-time information sharing between the two treaty-allies swifter and more efficient. 

While in Camp Aguinaldo, the two defense chiefs also oversaw the groundbreaking of the bilateral Combined Coordination Center. “This new facility is a modern capability designed to enhance interoperability between the two forces through the Pacific Multidomain Training and Experimentation Capability, allowing AFP and U.S. forces to operate as a combined command center for strategic planning, joint operations, intelligence sharing, and rapid response coordination ensuring both nations are ready to respond to regional challenges,” according to the US Embassy in Manila. 

We’re told that the center, aside from serving the Philippines and the US, may be utilized by countries with whom Manila has military training agreements: Australia and Japan (as soon as the Reciprocal Access Agreement is ratified by the Japanese Diet and the Philippine Senate). 

Austin and Teodoro are also set to visit on Tuesday, November 19, the Western Command in Palawan, or the unified command in charge of most of the West Philippine Sea, including features like Ayungin Shoal and Pag-asa Island. 

Austin’s November 2024 visit wraps up his term of over three years — including the two-and-a-half years that have been major strides in the bilateral relationship, a stark contrast from the purgatory that the US was forced into under former president Rodrigo Duterte. 

Under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and US President Joe Biden we’ve seen: 

• Four new sites under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, where the US can proposition assets and use staging areas for various purposes, including disaster response;
• The issuance of bilateral defense guidelines that explicitly states that the Mutual Defense Treaty covers attacks in the South China Sea;
• Two of the “biggest” Balikatan exercises (although it must be noted that even under Duterte, who had wanted the annual joint military exercise stopped, the two countries still managed to pull off what was then the “biggest” iteration of such exercise); 
• Numerous bilateral and multilateral joint sails in the West Philippine Sea, kickstarted by the first ever Maritime Cooperative Activity between the US and the Philippines in November 2023;
• A trilateral leaders meeting between the US, Philippines, and Japan

“I am very happy that despite the less than ideal weather, that you have managed to come and visit. There are many items that we will discuss… concerning the different issues that are facing both our countries, especially on the economic front and certainly the military front,” Marcos told Austin in Malacañang. 

Hours earlier, in Camp Aguinaldo, Teodoro awarded Austin the Outstanding Achievement Medal for “substantial contributions to strengthening the Philippines-US bilateral defense ties and promoting regional security in the Indo-Pacific.”

Most analysts will agree that it’s unlikely for the US to reverse the gains in the last two years. After all, the Philippines is in a strategic spot, as the United States navigates a China that’s become more and more assertive, especially in the Indo-Pacific. 

Florida Senator Marco Rubio, poised to take over the State Department once the second Trump administration begins in January 2025, is a China hawk who earlier introduced a bill “to diplomatically, economically, and militarily support the Philippines as it resists Chinese efforts to seize Philippine territory in the South China Sea.”  

The bill, introduced in July 2024 or a month after the China Coast Guard’s tense June 17 attack on Philippine soldiers in Ayungin Shoal, would “codify a Bilateral Strategic Dialogue with the Philippines” and “support efforts to harden the position of the Sierra Madre,” referring to the rusting warship that stands watch in the shoal. 

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Another China hawk (and Floridian), Representative Mike Waltz, is set to take over the National Security Adviser role. The controversial Hegseth is also considered to be a China hawk. 

Conversations with military personnel hint at a shy confidence towards bilateral ties and the good it will do the Armed Forces of the Philippines. Yet there’s the unpredictability and “transactional” nature of Trump to think about; will he see the benefits of backing and possibly shelling out (even more) money for the Philippines?  

During last week’s panel discussion on Trump’s 2024 win, former Philippine communications secretary Ricky Carandang raised an interesting point: an isolationist US under Trump could be a good thing for Manila. 

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“We have romanticized and idealized our relationship with America to the point where Filipinos think they’re just going to come to our aid just because we’re the little brown brother. Maybe this will shake us off of that, that will shake that sort of idealism off of us, and we can view our relationship with America in a more clear-headed and more pragmatic manner instead of expecting them to save us from all of our ills,” he told a panel that included Rappler’s editor-at-large Marites Vitug, international relations and security expert Herman Kraft, and analyst (and fellow Aquino-era Cabinet member) Ronald Llamas. 

To be clear (and fair), the Philippines under Marcos and his foreign affairs and defense chiefs Enrique Manalo and Teodoro, has been working to expand its diplomatic and security ties, even as it has grown even closer to its sole treaty ally. 

There’s a substantial line of countries eager to upgrade defense and diplomatic ties following the signing of the RAA with Japan, and the upgrade to a Strategic Partnership with South Korea. There’s New Zealand, France, and Canada waiting in the wings — perhaps by early 2025, or maybe even before the year ends? 

I realize we’ve had our fill of “interesting times” — especially the six years under Rodrigo Duterte. But we’re also about to start a new year of more chaos and disarray across the world. It’s a world that Trump will be entering anew, and one that he would obviously be shaping according to what he wants. – Rappler.com